Thursday, May 30, 2013
The OECD is now warning that US interest rates will rise if and when the Fed stops its latest round of bond-buying. Color me skeptical. First of all, there is no indication that the Fed intends to do any such thing- the warning itself pointed out that growth would slow and made no mention of inflation. But anyways, we have here another opportunity to evaluate the Fisher Rule in real time; I'd go so far as to say that if the Fed stopped its bond buying program, interest rates would be as likely to fall as to rise. I truly wish people would stop belly-aching about Fed policies as they related to interest rates. The Fed influences the price level and its attendant derivatives, nothing more and nothing less. If you want to know where interest rates are going, focus like a laser on capital inflows and inflation expectations.